General Election Seat Prediction

UK Politics


Unless you've had your head under a rock for the last couple of days, you'll be aware of the fact that there's going to be ANOTHER election in 7 weeks time. Here at ByTheMinute, we've crunched the numbers using our totally scientific* model to predict the election. Want to know the results? Course you do! *not scientific in the slightest...

Before giving you the result of the 2017 election, we do need to go back to the 2015 election to see what the current state of the parties is. Not that I'm typing that out. Snipping Tool can do all the work on that one.

That's where we were a couple of years ago. But where are we heading on June 8th? It would appear going by the polls that it's headed for a Tory majority of somewhere in the 100+ region. Based on the latest poll of polls, Electoral Calculus reckons there'll be a majority of 134. Here at ByTheMinute, we're saying that's a little on the good side. For Labour!!!

Our number crunching reckons the Tory vote will be somewhere near 46% of the national share, with Labour trailing behind on 23%. The Lib Dem vote share will increase, however there probably won't be many seats going their way. The UKIP vote will collapse to single digit figures and 0 MPs. We're predicting... Tories 46% Labour 23% Lib Dems 12% UKIP 5% Green 4%

Tim Bonville-Ginn

Lets hope

But what does that equate in seats? Well, keep reading and you'll find out. If the Tories can get 46% of the vote nationally, we reckon they are on track for a whopping 415 seats(!!) That would blow Maggie T's seats in the 70s and 80s out the water. It'd only be a 2 point increase on the current national level that could make this a reality too.

Labour, meanwhile, are on course for near extinction according to our totally unreliable prediction. We're saying they'll get a meager 147. If they were playing a game of snooker, they'd be delighted. Sadly, their playing politics and it looks like they are about to be heavily snookered.

The Lib Dems will come out with a huge gain of...*drumroll*...2 seats! Up to 10 in our prediction. Scenes in the Tim Farron household. Not.

UKIP will surely be consigned to political history (thankfully!) after this election and the Brexit process is over. We're predicting their vote will move firmly into Tory hands (or back into Tory hands!) and slump to a miserly 5%. 0 seats for UKIP. But you probably knew that already.

What of the SNP though? Was Nat peak really in 2015? Probably. However, they should still win the large majority of the seats in Scotland. We're going that their vote percentage will SLUMP to 45% from 50% in 2015. But that will still mean 52 seats will stay SNP yellow come June 9th. Swiftly followed by an indyref 2 announcement.

The Greens are an interesting party. Never given as much coverage as UKIP, but is that about to change? Our model is suggesting the Greens are going to take 2 seats in June. GET THE *recycled* PAPER HATS AT THE READY!